The Toronto Blue Jays are in a somewhat precarious position entering 2018. They are just 2 years removed from back-to-back appearances in the ALCS, with both playoff runs including some very dramatic moments such as Jose Bautista’s Game 5 ALDS home run against the Rangers, as well as Edwin Encarnacion’s walkoff in the 2016 Wild Card Game against Baltimore. That being said, they have since lost both Encarnacion to the Indians, Bautista fell off a cliff production-wise in 2017 and was not extended by the team, and the Jays also have some undesirable contracts to aging, declining players (Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin most notably). The impending free agency of former MVP Josh Donaldson after the season adds another twist to the Blue Jays future.
With the recent success of the team, it’s unlikely that the Jays fan base will be very welcoming of a rebuild, especially following the 20 years of mediocrity that the Jays underwent between their recent playoff runs and the 1992/93 back-to-back championships. Although, rebuilding does seem like the most viable option within the next couple years in my opinion, given the caliber of prospects coming through the Jays system. These prospects include 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr, who is currently the No.3 ranked overall prospect according to MLB.com. He was given an overall score of 70 on the conventional 20-80 scouting scale commonly used by major league scouts. By comparison, current MLB stars Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant were also given a 70 ranking on this scale back in 2014, and we’ve seen how they turned out. SS Bo Bichette was also named minor league offensive player of the year (reported by Gerard Gilberto of MiLB.com) at just 19 years of age, while playing shortstop, a position that is traditionally light on offence.
One issue with Guerrero Jr though is that he plays the same position as Josh Donaldson, the Blue Jays current superstar. If the Jays are under .500 by the all-star break, one move they should seriously consider is moving Donaldson for more prospects, ideally a power-hitting outfielder or more pitching. It may not be popular amongst the fan base (this coming from a Jays fan), but it would be more desirable than to risk losing him in free agency and only receiving a compensation draft pick in return. Plus, it would clear the way for Guerrero Jr. to start wreaking havoc on big league pitchers, much like his father before him. Guerrero Jr would also be under team control for the next 6 years, unlike Donaldson who will be 32 years old during the 2018 season and likely would require a long-term deal worth a lot of money in order to convince him to return in 2019.
Moving Donaldson is only a good move if the Jays are struggling at midseason. If they are a strong contender deep into the season, it would be stupid to move their former MVP as that would strongly sabotage any playoff hopes for this year. But, if a second consecutive year goes awry, the front office must consider any possible alternatives. He would net by far the biggest haul out of any of the jays assets. Players like Martin, Tulowitzki, and Kendrys Morales would be difficult to find suitors for given their declining production and high price tag. But Donaldson would warrant a decent return, even as a rental player to a contender.
We’ll see how the season plays out.
BaseballNerd 