How much did pre-season trades affect the Miami Marlins?

Before the season, Marlins GM Derek Jeter caught a lot of flack from local media and fans when he traded four of the teams star players from the 2017 season: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcela Ozuna, and Dee Gordon. In return, he received a ton of prospects, but the trades also short circuited any chance of contending in the near future. Now that the season is over, we can evaluate how the Marlins would’ve performed if those 4 players had been in the fold.

Obviously, this is impossible to do in a 100% accurate manner, as there are so many factors that affect how any player performs over a season with a given team (schedule, home park, etc). Though to provide an estimate, we will take the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values from each of the 4 players, and compare them to the players who the Marlins had received in the trades. We will then add the difference in WAR to the team’s 2018 win total to provide an estimate of what the Marlins record would’ve been had the trades not been executed.

 

To start, we will list the players traded away:

Note: WAR values come from Fangraphs.com

 

Giancarlo Stanton, NYY OF: 4.2 WAR

Christian Yelich, MIL OF: 7.6 WAR

Marcell Ozuna: 2.7 WAR

Dee Gordon: 0.0 WAR

TOTAL WAR: 14.5

 

Next, we will add up the WAR values of all players the Marlins received in the flurry of trades (out of the ones that played in the majors):

Starlin Castro: 2.3 WAR

Lewis Brinson: -1.0 WAR

Magneuris Sierra: -1.5 WAR

Sandy Alcantara: 0.2 WAR

TOTAL WAR: 0.0

WAR difference: -14.5 WAR

 

Taking this total, and rounding it to 15 wins lost from this trade, we will then add it to the Marlins regular season record from 2018. The Marlins finished at 63-98. Adding 15 wins to this, the Marlins record would’ve become 78-83, which only would’ve put them at fourth place in the NL East, and is approximately what their 2017 record was (77-85).

In conclusion, the trades that the Marlins made in the offseason did not decimate a playoff bound team. It was a simple rebuilding process for a team that would not have gone far anyways.